Quick note before the features: It's pretty rare for a pool with this many potential points to end in a tie, so I don't bother with tiebreakers. Still, if it ended today, we'd have a tie between the 4th, 5th, and 6th place finishers. So in case of a tie, the tiebreaker is overall picking record. If that's also a tie, the money is split. It wouldn't be fair to create an artificial tiebreaker beyond the obvious win-loss one at this point.
The Health Report
You couldn't ask to be in a better position than Brendan Mooney right now, though I personally think he's about to lose big on tomorrow's Ohio State-33 pick. Still, he's the unquestioned leader of the pack. Let's check out the rest. You'll see that the volatility is decreasing as the number of remaining games dwindles.
1. Brendan Mooney. Health: 9.0. CURRENT FAVORITE.
2. Dan Ryan. Health: 8.0. Projected Finish: 2nd.
3. Greg Blanco. Health: 8.0. Projected Finish: 3rd.
4. Dave Bragg. Health: 7.0. Projected Finish: 6th.
5. Alan Shaw. Health: 7.0. Projected Finish: 7th.
6. Dylan Hulser. Health: 7.0. Projected Finish: 8th.
7. Phil Kairalla. Health: 7.5. Projected Finish: 3rd.
8. Mike Curry. Health: 4.5. Projected Finish: 13th.
9. Fred Cacchione. Health: 7.5. Projected Finish: 4th.
10. Keith Farrow. Health: 6.0. Projected Finish: 9th.
Andy Watson (314 points, 106 PPR), Julio McLaughlin (308 points, 123 PPR), Shane Ryan (296 points, 165 PPR), Eric Thomason (282 points, 171 PPR).
The Cream of the Crop
Three contestants are currently at 19-10, and they lead the pack as the cream of the crop. Tips of the expensive hat to Dan Ryan (2nd), Fred Cacchione (9th), and Shane Ryan (20th). The best record last year was 22-11, a .666 winning percentage. 19-10 calculates out to .655, slightly below last year's pace but well within range.
The Schneid Watch
After a rough 0-6 New Year's Day performance, Robin Cohen seems to have this one on lockdown at 9-20. Last year's Schneid winner was 10-22 overall. As above, Robin has a good shot to set a record. Only Dan Mooney, at 11-18, presents any obstacle.
Old School v. New School
Sad to say, this one looks to be wrapped up. The new kids on the block got off to a fast start and never looked back. WHIPPERSNAPPERS! GET OFF OUR LAWN.
Old School Average: 280.0
New School Average: 301.9
Helter Skelter vs. Dirty Vegas vs. Shouting Siblings
Dirty Vegas, the player of the odds, seems to have triumphed over random methods this time around. If he can hold on over Helter Skelter, it's sweet, sweet revenge for last year's embarrassment. But this one ain't quite in the books yet.
Dirty Vegas: 305
Helter Skelter: 283
Shouting Siblings: 205
Interesting note: With her coin-flipping method, Patricia Curry was 18-13 last year. This year, she's 13-15. That's an overall record of 21-18. The coin has treated her kindly, but will it correct itself before this is all over?
Young vs. Old
It looked for all the world like Tom Cowell was going to surge ahead of Spike using his veteran wiles, just like last year, but all the sudden Spike is making a surge. With a Stanford-28 pick, he's right back in this thing! Maybe the youngster had more heart than any of us thought...
Tom Cowell: 241
Spike Friedman: 231
They have the same picks over the next five games, albeit with different values, but Spike made a rare Oregon-15 pick for the national championship while Tom opted for the more conservative Auburn-34 selection. This one will more than likely come right down to the wire!
Eric(k)s vs. Toms vs. Females
The Eric(k)s made a move on the Toms tonight, but still trail by 40 points. The females, meanwhile, are in a shambles.
This one is an absolute classic! With 6 games left, the difference between 1st place and 8th place is a mere 31 points! What a cluster! What excitement! Who has the strongest genes? We may not know until the very end...the Kairallas are the current leaders, but moves are being made all over the place. The Cacchiones in particular have shown great upward mobility, shooting from last to fourth in the matter of two days.
Kairalla (John & Phil, father/son): 632
Mooney (Brendan & Dan, brothers): 620
Curry (Mike & Patricia, husband/wife): 619
Cacchione (Fred & Tom, father/son): 616
McLaughlin/Moore (cousins): 610
Zehringer/Sarver (father/son-in-law): 609
Ryan (Dan & Steve, brothers): 607
Shane Ryan/Ryder (uncle/nephew): 601
Cowell/Fisch (father/son-in-law): 538
The overall success rate of points converted for every contestant in the entire pool is holding steady at 55.1%. To date, 46% of possible points for the entire pool have been converted, meaning there's only a short distance to reaching the magical 50%. With 6 games left, the odds are looking good, though an Oregon win could put a kink in the plan.
For comparison's sake, last year's pool converted 54.1% of all possible points when things were said and done. We're slightly ahead of the curve!
In terms of wins and losses, last year's pool went 543-513 for a winning rate of 51.4%. This year, we're already 643-604, for a 51.6% rate. Very, very close.
See you tomorrow with updates after OSU-Arkansas. Go Razorbacks!